Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has lost a confidence vote in the Bundestag, paving the way for Germany’s federal election on February 23, 2025. What does the upcoming election mean for the dual citizenship law?

Olaf Scholz loses confidence vote in German Bundestag

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has lost a confidence vote, with 394 members of the Bundestag to 207 voting for the leader to step down from his post. 

Countless accusations were thrown around during a three-hour debate on the Bundestag floor. CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who is expected to step into Scholz's role, said the incumbent chancellor had undermined Germany's position in Europe, while the Greens' Robert Habeck warned the CDU may fail to foster consensus and face a similar downfall to the outgoing coalition.

Bundestag members cast their ballot in the sixth confidence vote in Germany’s postwar history and Scholz said it reiterated that was his "goal to call an early general election". 

Why was Scholz facing a confidence vote?

On November 6, Scholz fired the Finance Minister and co-leader of the SPD-FDP-Greens coalition government Christian Lindner (FDP). The chancellor said Lindner had failed to cooperate on multiple occasions and that a “basis of trust” between the leaders had dissolved. 

FDP members followed Lindner out of the Bundestag doors and the SPD-FDP-Green coalition collapsed, leaving Scholz running a minority government. Even before Lindner was sacked, the popularity of Germany’s “traffic light coalition” had long been waning. On November 12, the chancellor announced he would hold a confidence vote.

What happens now that Scholz has lost his post?

As is protocol, the chancellor is now expected to meet with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and ask him to dissolve parliament on December 27. 

According to German law, an election must be held within 60 days after a confirmation that parliament will be dissolved. In this case, Scholz and Steinmeier’s meeting will pave the way for the federal election planned for February 23, 2025.

Polls from December 14 show the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU / CSU) as the favourite to win, with 32,5 percent of the vote. The far-right Alternative for German (AfD) is currently in second with an 18 percent share, followed by the SPD (16 percent), the Greens (12,6 percent), Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) (6,1 percent) and the FDP (4,1 percent). 

While the CDU / CSU has formed coalitions with the AfD at the local and district levels, the party has put a cordon sanitaire in place against collaboration at the federal level. This means the next German government will likely be a coalition between the CDU / CDU and SPD or CDU / CSU and the Greens. Polling at just 4,1 percent, the FDP may not even overcome the “5 percent hurdle” that parties must surpass to enter parliament.

Would a CDU / CSU government put the dual citizenship law at risk?

For international people and people with migrant backgrounds living in Germany, one of the most significant pieces of legislation brought by Scholz’s coalition is the dual citizenship law that passed in January 2024.

The law allows international people to take up citizenship after five years of residence in Germany, without surrendering their native citizenship. In Bundestag debates during the legislative process, the CDU / CSU were the main opposition to the new law, arguing that it “cheapens” the German passport.

As the year progressed and the traffic light coalition’s popularity continued to plummet, the centre-right party vowed to scrap the citizenship law if they won the 2025 federal election. So now that they are on track to form a government with over 30 percent of the vote, how likely is it that the law will be scrapped?

Germany’s democratic system lends itself to coalition governments, only once has the modern federal republic been governed by a single party. This will likely remain the case in the next election, which means the CDU / CDU will have to form a government with a coalition partner.

So far, Merz, the CDU / CSU candidate for chancellor, has kept his cards close to his chest as to who the party may choose. But since the conservatives have declined to collaborate with the AfD, the SPD or Greens are the most likely coalition candidates.

If either a CDU / CSU-SPD coalition or a CDU / CSU-Greens coalition is formed, the party would find it difficult to scrap the citizenship law, since they would be dependent on votes coming from party members who passed the law in the first place. It may even be the case that retaining the dual citizenship law is written in the coalition agreement.

In the Bundesrat, the upper parliamentary chamber which represents Germany’s 16 federal states, the CDU / CSU would also need to win at least 50 percent of the vote to repeal the dual citizenship law. This kind of success at the polls is highly unlikely.

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