In the last TV debate ahead of the federal election on February 23, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) leader and chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz reasserted promises to restrict immigration to Germany.

Merz says Germany should look to Danish model

Ahead of the federal election on Sunday, chancellor-hopeful Friedrich Merz has called on voters to give him a strong mandate to further restrict German immigration policy.

"In the next four years we must solve two big problems in this country: migration and the economy," said Merz in the debate with incumbent chancellor Olaf Scholz, warning that Germany would otherwise “slide into right-wing populism".

Merz’s centre-right CDU is currently polling with 29 percent of the vote, the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) with 21 percent and Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) with 16 percent. The AfD, which was only formed in 2013, expects to see its best-ever result in Sunday’s election.

Merz pointed to neighbouring Denmark as evidence that introducing a stricter immigration policy slows increasing support for far-right parties. In recent years, Denmark has revoked residence permits for Syrian nationals and moved asylum seekers to “partner countries” such as Rwanda, among other policies which were previously considered extreme by the German government.

Which policies do Merz and the CDU have in mind?

In early February the CDU released a 15-point “Sofortprogramm”, which detailed policies the party would immediately set in motion if they won the election. 

The plan includes stopping “illegal” immigration, introducing permanent border controls, turning people away at the border and unlimited detention for criminals and “dangerous people” awaiting deportation.

The CDU has also promised to support the immigration limitation law (Zustromsbegrenzungsgesetz), ending family reunification for beneficiaries of subsidiary protection and giving the federal police more power, scrap “fast track” German citizenship after three years and dual citizenship for non-EU citizens.

Migration has dominated public discourse in the run-up to Sunday’s election, largely due to Merz’s decision to accept the AfD’s support in passing two non-binding immigration restriction motions in the Bundestag on January 29.

Experts warn migration is key to Germany’s economic woes

Merz’s promises to further restrict migration come despite experts’ warnings that Germany urgently needs to welcome skilled workers to save its ailing economy amid a significant demographic shift.

In a special report published ahead of the election, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) warned that 4,7 million existing employees will leave the German labour force between 2024 and 2028. Previous assessments have predicted that Germany must welcome around 400.000 foreign workers to avoid economic growth falling to 0.

Another recent study has suggested that the German rental crisis, which has been far less prominent in election run-up discussions, is an overlooked factor in the AfD’s rise.

According to research by the Centre for European Social Studies (MZES) at the University of Mannheim, Baden-Württemberg, low-income residents in German cities are more likely to support the AfD if they live in areas with fast-rising rents.

“This pattern is well known and is consistent with the results of numerous other studies," study co-author Denis Cohen explained, "Parties on the radical, right-wing spectrum benefit from the resulting fears of social decline". 

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