Black Swan Capital: Helping expats smartly manage their finances

Black Swan Capital is a Netherlands-based award-winning independent investment advisory firm dedicated to delivering investment advice for the specific and unique needs of expats and international professionals across Europe.

Count on independent investment advice at Black Swan Capital

The Black Swan Theory

Their name originates from an economic theory with interesting ties to history. Across Europe, there are only white swans. Up until the 17th century, therefore, in Europe the fact that all swans were white seemed irrefutable. Scientists and those readers au fait with research theory will recognise this as the model of flawed hypothesis construction.

It took the sighting of one black swan by a European in what is now Western Australia in the 1600s to destroy that fact.

The Black Swan Theory then is the theory of how one piece of data - the existence of a black swan in Australia in the 17th century - can destroy a hypothesis, a belief system and an entire model. It shows that economies can be, and indeed are, unpredictable and unstable because at any point in time whilst we may think we are operating on all the information, a new piece of data may render our truths wrong.

Why you should invest with Black Swan Capital

This is why Black Swan Capital believes that their truly-independent investment advice, designed specifically for expats in Europe, is important. In helping their international clients, it is not about predicting or controlling events, it is about being prepared for their impact and being ready for the opportunities they may present.

Black Swan Capital's professionals have a very clear position on predicting the future: you cannot do it with any accuracy. This goes to the core of their philosophy. When they state their position that they do not know with certainty what will happen in the future, the obvious next question they get is: can you still plan for the future?

The answer is yes, you can and you should plan for the future. In fact, the question of "Can you predict the future?" is not the right question. It is not a matter of what markets or stocks will be priced at next month. The first and most important question for an expat investor to answer is "What are their goals?". To know where they want to be in 10 years, for example, is what should drive investment decisions, rather than how an asset price has moved or is expected to move.

Their philosophy

The company's philosophy is an application of the principle of the Black Swan theory, espoused by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan. He defines a black swan event as something that can be positive or negative. Something that is not predicted, expected or foreseen, but which, when it occurs, has a substantial impact. The other principle is that many people after the event will have claimed they could see it coming (but not before), which he calls retrospective predictability.

A positive black swan could be the technology revolution of the late 20th century. A negative one may be the collapse of the mortgage lending structured investments causing the financial crisis of 2008.

When Black Swan Capital applies this theory to managing their international clients’ wealth and helping them to achieve their goals, they posit that they will likely not know what the next black swan event is or when it will happen but do know there is likely to be one. Therefore, they apply contingencies for clients to plan for potential extraordinary events. The aim is to build such contingencies into every client plan to reduce portfolio, investment and financial plan fragility.

A few details about Black Swan Capital

Black Swan Capital holds an independent investment firm licence from the Dutch financial regulator, the AFM, one of the highest standards in Europe. They are overseen by the Dutch central bank (DNB) and their licence is approved across the whole EU.

They have a fiduciary duty to their clients, which means they don't charge for their initial meeting, as they assess if it is in your best interest to work with them. if you do proceed, you then pay a fee for their services.

A better approach

Black Swan Capital's approach is to build investment strategies for clients based on their goals and objectives, then adapt them to the market conditions and economic cycles, and not the other way around.

For a more aligned approach, they review your portfolios by ensuring they are in line with your goals and checking they are on track to hit your targets, with contingency factors embedded. Focusing on the end goal can remove unnecessary risk-taking, stress and potential losses.

Get financial advice today

Black Swan Capital knows that volatile markets make for a stressful time. They are here for you and available if you would like to speak with them about your investments, your financial plan or how to create a plan. They can also give you advice or a second opinion. Contact them at [email protected] and they will be happy to speak with you.

They are Europe's first truly independent investment advisory business dedicated to the needs of expats and international professionals.

They are Black Swan Capital.