As Angela Merkel prepares to meet with the heads of Germany’s 16 federal states to discuss a possible relaxing of coronavirus restrictions, researchers from the Hans Böckler Foundation are advising against hastily lifting the measures. Doing so, they warn, could provoke a “new surge” in the number of coronavirus infections in Germany.

Coronavirus lockdown should be lifted sustainably, not quickly

In an analysis published on Tuesday by the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK), the Hans Böckler Foundation warned against a hasty exit from coronavirus restrictions. From a health and economic perspective, they argue, the easing of social distancing requirements to curb the pandemic should be in “well-prepared steps.”

The report states that a premature lifting of the coronavirus restrictions runs the risk of causing the infection rate to “shoot up again”, thereby forcing authorities to tighten contact restrictions again and overall causing longer “and thus more economically expensive” restrictions. “It is more important that the contact restrictions are eased sustainably than that they are eased quickly,” said the IMK Scientific Director Sebastian Dullien. 

Rough calculations by the IMK, together with common epidemiological models, indicate that after a loosening of restrictions, exponential infection growth could occur again within a few weeks if the reproductive rate was not reduced significantly and sustainably at the same time. 

Researchers weigh economic consequences

Each month under lockdown costs about one percentage point of growth, the study found - and this cost will rise exponentially from the beginning of May, as the risk of businesses going bust also rises significantly. 

But, overall, the report’s authors concluded that this finding strengthened their central argument: sustainability, not speed. “In the end, the total duration of the business interruption counts. If everything is reopened for two weeks and then closed again for two months, nothing will be gained,” said Dullien. 

The first step, according to the report, would be to implement infection protection, hygiene regulations and distance rules in daycare centres, schools, retail and gastronomy. This would allow partial operation to be resumed. 

For example, each school class could have lessons only every other day, and shops and service providers could work with partitions and admission restrictions. The report’s authors also advocate a general obligation to wear simple protective face masks in public. 

Germany deliberates gradual easing of coronavirus restrictions

The report came just as Chancellor Angela Merkel and the heads of Germany’s federal states prepared to meet on Wednesday to agree on a possible gradual lifting of coronavirus restrictions.

Many of the researcher’s arguments have been echoed by leading figures in government. SPD ministers have indicated that they will only agree to a relaxation if certain parameters have been met, including a low rate of new infections, adequate capacity in the German healthcare system, the expansion of testing and adequate protective equipment. 

The Green leaders Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck have also spoken out in favour of gradually opening schools and daycare centres, with precautionary measures in place.