After months of lockdown, something closely resembling normal life is beginning to emerge in Germany - beaches are reopening, people are eating in restaurants and going to the hairdresser and the gym - but a clear majority of people in Germany do not believe that it will stay that way. 

Majority of people in Germany expect second lockdown

Four out of five people in Germany expect that there will be a second national lockdown - one that will cause significant damage to the German economy - according to a representative survey of 5.000 people, conducted by the opinion research institute Civey on behalf of SPIEGEL.

82 percent of those surveyed said that they expect coronavirus measures to be tightened again this year. Of these, around a third (32 percent) said that they think this will “definitely” happen, and 50 percent “rather” expect it. Only slightly more than one in 10 respondents said they do not expect any new restrictions. 

It stands to reason that recent developments have contributed to this very clear-cut opinion. For a few weeks now, the number of new coronavirus infections in Germany has been well above the levels reported in June and, at the end of last week, rose above 1.000 daily infections for the first time in three months.

Nearly half predict stricter lockdown

Confronted with images of tightly-packed holidayers in bars and on beaches, and tens of thousands of mask-eschewing protesters at anti-corona demos, it is perhaps also unsurprising that many people expect the new lockdown to be even stricter. 

42 percent of those who expect new restrictions said they will be tougher than those in the spring, compared to 27 percent who believe the second lockdown will be like the first. 30 percent said the restrictions will be looser. 

Germany determined to focus on local measures

The fact that so many people expect such a tough second lockdown is surprising in the view of a number of experts. For example, virologist Christian Drosten and SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach have both pointed to the experience gained in Germany so far, which will make it possible to take more targeted - and therefore less drastic - measures in the future. 

Most recently, faced with rising infection numbers in Germany, Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn has underlined the government strategy to focus mainly on regional measures rather than nationwide actions.