For the first time since Putin invaded Ukraine, the wholesale cost of gas across Germany and Europe has sunk below pre-war prices. But according to European experts, the remaining winter months could see prices rise again.

Cost of gas in Germany now lower than before Ukraine invasion

The wholesale cost of gas in Europe and Germany has now fallen below what it was before the Ukraine war began in February 2022. The assessment was made on January 2, when TTF, the gas trading platform in The Netherlands which is considered the reference for gas prices in Europe, lay at 72,75 euros per megawatt hour, the lowest price since February 21, 2022.

Between March and August 2022, the TTF assessed wholesale prices remained consistently high, between 345 euros and 342 euros per megawatt hour.

But the winter brought about a shift. Experts in Germany attribute the now cheaper costs to the country’s gas reserves and a dwindling demand for gas caused by unprecedented warm autumn and winter weather. Back in November, Germany filled its winter gas reserves to 100 percent, a target which was reached early thanks to a worryingly mild October and the increasing unaffordable cost of gas, meaning households and businesses had to cut down on consumption.

The coming months hang in the balance for Germany

Now halfway through the winter, Germany’s gas reserves lie at 90 percent full. Speaking to ntv, Thierry Bros of the Institute for Political Science in Paris highlighted that the coming months hang in the balance for Europe. “Everything depends on Vladimir Putin’s decision,” Bros said, referring to the scenario where Putin continues to block gas flow via the Nord Stream gas taps to Europe, a method that began in September.

Bros spoke of another possible tactic Putin could employ during the remaining winter months, where the Russian leader would deliver gas to some European countries, but refuse it to others, as a method of dividing Ukraine’s European allies.

According to the French expert, Europe must obtain at least a further 30 billion cubic metres of Russian gas in order to refill supplies for next winter. If this quota is not fulfilled, prices are likely to rise again.

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